Trade Review and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1697 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

According to the published data, in the final month of 2025 the US manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, triggering a large-scale sell-off of the US dollar against the euro. The immediate reaction of investors to this signal indicates concerns about a potential increase in pressure on the Federal Reserve in the context of future monetary policy decisions.

Today, in the first half of the day, the upward movement in EUR/USD may continue. For this to happen, strong data on the eurozone services activity index and the composite PMI are required. The release of Germany's consumer price index will also be an important event for the European Central Bank, providing an opportunity to assess the effectiveness of the monetary policy tools being used. A slowdown in price growth could ease pressure on the ECB, reducing the need for further monetary policy intervention. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that exchange rates are influenced by a wide range of factors, and even favorable economic indicators can be offset by sudden geopolitical events or changes in the global economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the level around 1.1741 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.1762. At the 1.1762 level, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Euro growth can be expected after strong data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1725 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1741 and 1.1762 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1725 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1704 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level. Pressure on the pair today may return only after very weak economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1741 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1725 and 1.1704 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.