Trade Review and Advice on Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1787 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by only 7 points, and the move ended there.

Due to the lack of statistical data from the eurozone, trading was relatively calm and did not lead to any significant shift in the balance of power in the market. Traders and investors, left without new information for making well-grounded decisions, chose to scale back their activity and save their strength for U.S. data releases.

Special attention will be paid to U.S. consumer confidence figures. A decline in consumer confidence would indicate a deterioration in economic conditions, significantly weakening the dollar's position against the euro. In addition to consumer confidence data, other statistical reports capable of influencing market dynamics are scheduled for release. In particular, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — which reflects business activity in the manufacturing sector of that region — will be published. Furthermore, several Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak and comment on Trump's new tariffs in the context of future Fed interest rate decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euros can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1793 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1817. At 1.1817, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can only be expected after weak U.S. statistics.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1779 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1793 and 1.1817 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1779 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1760, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of strong U.S. statistics.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1793 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1779 and 1.1760 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions with extreme caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.