Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the British Pound

A price test at 1.3590 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

In conditions of a news vacuum, traders are showing reduced activity, which speculative buyers are taking advantage of. Despite Bank of England representative Megan Greene stating today that it is better to wait and see how the war with Iran develops before making decisions on interest rate hikes, the pound managed to recover slightly after the morning sell-off triggered by Middle East news. Greene warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and that progress in fighting inflation had already stalled before the military conflict began. However, policymakers are in no rush to raise interest rates.

Attention will next turn to U.S. existing home sales data, which will be released today and is traditionally an important indicator of the consumer sector and overall economic health. However, given the current context, its impact on short-term market movements is likely to be limited. The figures are expected to reflect trends already priced in by the market and are unlikely to provide fundamentally new information capable of triggering sharp position shifts.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3611 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.3644 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3644, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Pound growth today is only possible in case of weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3590 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected toward 1.3611 and 1.3644.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3590 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 1.3549, where I will exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure may return today if U.S. data is strong.Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just started moving downward.

Scenario No. 2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3611 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3590 and 1.3549 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line — entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line — estimated Take Profit level or area for profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line — entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line — estimated Take Profit level or area for profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator — trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are, by definition, a losing intraday strategy.