Trump signals intent to resume combat operations against Iran

Tehran has demanded an emergency revision of the negotiating track with Washington after another series of overnight clashes. In response, US President Donald Trump publicly said the US intends to return to full-scale operations and announced an imminent offensive with massive strikes on key civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants.

Separately, Trump said he was satisfied with the economy despite CPI rising to 4.2% and attributed a fall in oil prices to the alleged interception of 22 Iranian tankers — a claim Energy Secretary Chris Wright immediately denied, saying his department has no information supporting any forced seizure of Middle Eastern oil. Follow the link for more details.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh confronts surprising economic strength and rising inflation

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a paradox. Known as a hawk, Warsh was expected by some in the White House to help lower borrowing costs. Instead, macro data points the other way: GDP is growing about 3% (Atlanta Fed estimates), equity markets are hitting records amid fiscal stimulus, and unemployment remains at a comfortable 4.3%.

Warsh's earlier argument that digitalization and AI adoption would naturally restrain inflation is losing traction as massive investment flows add to price pressures. Analysts see little prospect for quick policy easing. Balance sheet reduction is judged unlikely to have a rapid effect. Follow the link for more details.

Goldman Sachs materially revises Fed rate forecasts

Goldman Sachs has removed interest rate cuts from this year's outlook and pushed the first rounds of easing to June and December 2027. The change follows a shockingly strong May labor report — 172k payrolls added versus a consensus 88k — which also kept the unemployment rate steady. Goldman cut its year-end unemployment forecast to 4.4% from 4.6%.

Strong macro releases sparked heavy selling of government bonds and a drop of more than 5% in the Nasdaq 100. Markets are now pricing in roughly 25bp of rate hikes by year-end. Investors expect the June 16–17 FOMC meeting under Warsh to feature a decidedly hawkish tone consistent with May CPI. Follow the link for more details.

USD: winning trade amid entrenched inflation?

BMO Capital Markets argues that buying the US dollar is the most attractive tactical call in an environment of entrenched inflation and tight financial conditions. Strong May employment data gave the greenback a sudden lift, and it is premature to assume the US–Iran standoff will end soon enough to push oil down and inflation off the table.

Fundamentals favor a persistently tight policy stance and dollar dominance. BMO is therefore holding aggressive long USD positions vs. the euro, pound, yen, AUD, and CAD. Bloomberg commentary supports this view. Follow the link for more details.

Bank of America warns of correction risk in tech

Analysts at Bank of America flagged worrying technical signals in the tech sector: the Nasdaq 100, though attempting to bounce from Friday's lows, remains in a precarious zone. The prolonged rally above the psychological 30,000 level looks overstretched. RSI has rolled down from overbought territory, and a weekly bearish engulfing pattern formed.

The run-up was driven largely by aggressive buying of semiconductor stocks. Quant models and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF profile point to critical overheating in the cohort, raising the risk of a sharp volatility spike. BofA advises large investors to protect portfolios as the current risk/reward disfavors buyers. Follow the link for more details.